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The overall forecast is uncertain because nobody knows how the coronavirus pandemic will continue, how companies’ liquidity situations will develop, and how consumers will behave.
The institutes estimate that the second quarter will see a 12.3 percent drop over the first quarter, which had already fallen by 3.6 percent. In the third quarter, the economy will grow by 8.3 percent; in the fourth, by a further 2.8 percent. However, this adds up to a contraction in all goods and services produced of 8.1 percent for the year as a whole.
In the second quarter, all key figures are in the red: industrial production shrank by 18.9 percent owing to coronavirus-related shutdowns, private consumption by 11.8 percent, and investment by 15.4 percent quarter over quarter.
In the third quarter, after the restart, industrial production will rise by 14.7 percent, and in the fourth quarter by 2.7 percent; on balance, this amounts to minus 11.3 percent for the full year. The other key figures are similar.
Prices will fall by 0.9 percent in the third quarter but will rise by 0.3 percent in the fourth quarter, equating to 0.0 percent for the full year.
Italy’s Istat statistical office did not participate in the Eurozone Economic Outlook for the second quarter.