European Experts Predict Significant Increase in US Import Tariffs by Year-End

A new international survey by the ifo Institute and EconPol Europe reveals that economists across Europe expect a sharp rise in tariffs on imports from the United States by the end of 2025. According to the Economic Experts Survey (EES), the average anticipated tariff on US products is 18 percent. Notably, experts in France, Spain, and Portugal foresee even higher rates, ranging from 20 to 25 percent, while those in Central Europe, including Germany, expect tariffs between 15 and 20 percent. The lowest estimates, at 10 to 15 percent, come from Sweden, Bulgaria, and Italy.

Despite these expectations, there is a strong consensus among economists for much lower tariffs, with an average recommended rate of just 12.8 percent. The survey highlights a significant gap between what experts predict and what they consider economically appropriate. This divergence is mirrored in the US, where economists expect a 19 percent tariff on EU imports but recommend only 3 percent.

The findings underscore ongoing challenges in forming a unified EU trade policy and serve as a warning to policymakers. Experts on both sides of the Atlantic agree that a cooperative and well-founded trade policy is essential for global trade stability.

Source:ifo Institute