How AI is reshaping global trade
A new report by Allianz Trade examines how artificial intelligence is reshaping global trade, supply chains and geopolitical dependencies. The study highlights that AI and trade are now deeply interconnected, as AI development depends on global supply chains for semiconductors, computing infrastructure and digital services, while trade increasingly depends on control over AI infrastructure, data flows and cloud capacity.
Trade in AI-related goods has grown rapidly
According to the report, global trade in AI-related goods has grown rapidly from USD 1 trillion in 2014 to USD 3.8 trillion in 2025, accounting for 15% of global trade and significantly outpacing overall goods trade growth. Asia dominates the sector, representing 65% of global AI-related exports, led by China, Taiwan and Hong Kong. The supply chain remains highly concentrated around semiconductors, intermediate inputs and data-centre infrastructure.
Driven by massive investment
The United States has become the largest importer of AI-related goods, driven by massive investment in AI services and data centres. Europe, by contrast, is lagging behind due to lower investment levels, limited data-centre capacity and reliance on US cloud providers and Asian hardware suppliers. The report warns that Europe faces growing strategic dependence on both the US and Asia in AI infrastructure and services.
AI-related services trade is expanding quickly
The study also notes that AI-related services trade is expanding quickly. ICT services trade reached USD 900 billion in 2024, with Ireland playing a central role as a billing hub for US technology companies. Allianz Trade argues that increased adoption of AI subscription services from US providers could significantly widen Europe’s digital trade deficit with the United States.
Three major structural trends
Beyond trade figures, the report identifies three major structural trends reshaping the global AI economy: increasing concentration in supply chains, the growing geopolitical importance of data centres and cloud infrastructure, and the rise of industrial policy and technology protectionism. While tariffs on AI-related goods have fallen globally, non-tariff measures, export controls and subsidies have expanded sharply, particularly in the US and China.
The report concludes that AI is creating a more interconnected but also more fragile global trade system. Concentration in semiconductor production, cloud infrastructure and critical materials creates vulnerabilities to geopolitical tensions, supply disruptions and regulatory fragmentation, especially for Europe.