India’s population is set to pass China’s
India, which has 1.428 billion people, is on the cusp of surpassing China as the world’s most populous country. (It’s already surpassed mainland China, new U.N. estimates show; soon it will have more people than the mainland and Hong Kong combined.) That has led some to hope for an “Indian century” in the making, though challenges remain.
Unlike China, and most industrialized countries, India has a young and expanding work force. Nearly 80 percent of Indians are younger than 50. And the proportion of Indians in extreme poverty has plummeted; the country’s economy has grown much faster than the population for a generation.
But India faces major challenges. Most Indians remain poor by global standards. There are not enough jobs — the economy has never expanded fast enough to produce enough formal employment for everyone. India has one of the world’s lowest rates of formal employment for women. And although famines are a thing of the past, more than a third of all children are malnourished.
That brings the risk of instability, as does the country’s increasingly forceful Hindu nationalist government. Economic growth without an equivalent increase in jobs worsens inequality and raises the potential for unrest. And an economy cannot meet its potential when it draws on the contributions of so few women as India does.
By the numbers: India recently surpassed Britain to become the world’s fifth-largest economy. Among major economies, India’s is projected to be the fastest-growing this year.
Ripple effects: China’s shrinking work force is a threat to the global economy.