Survey: economic impact after Donald Trump's re-election
Economic experts expect very different effects from Donald Trump’s second presidency. While respondents in the US and Western Europe are extremely pessimistic, respondents in other regions expect little to no negative impact or are even hopeful, finds the Economic Experts Survey, a quarterly survey conducted by the ifo Institute and the Swiss Economic Policy Institute. “There is widespread concern particularly in Western industrialized countries that Donald Trump will damage the economy,” says ifo researcher Niklas Potrafke. “In Africa, Latin America and Asia, on the other hand, experts hardly expect any negative effects on economic growth in their countries.”
With the election of Donald Trump as the 47th President of the United States of America, a new era of global politics has arrived. What will be the impact of Trump’s promised policy agenda on the rest of the world? The special module of the Q4 2024 survey of the EES explored these concerns by asking experts about the anticipated effects of Trump’s policies on economic growth, trade policy, climate policy, ongoing conflicts and security, and the future role of international organizations.
Economy
Regarding economic growth, opinions among experts are notably divided. In Western Europe, pessimism dominates, with over 80% of respondents predicting negative effects on economic growth under Trump’s presidency. Similarly, experts in North America share a predominantly negative outlook. In contrast, opinions in other parts of the world, particularly in Africa and Asia, are less critical. In many regions across these continents, the majority of experts do not foresee a significant negative impact on their countries’ economic growth.
Trade Policy
Experts’ views on the future of trade policies reveal a broader consensus, with 80% of all experts sharing negative expectations. In North America, Europe, and Oceania, nearly all experts predict that international trade will become more challenging under Trump’s administration. While experts in Asia, Africa, and South America share similar apprehensions, the level of concern is somewhat lower. The regions most optimistic about economic growth – such as Central and Southern Asia, as well as Northern, Eastern, and Southern Africa – also exhibit more positive expectations for trade policies. This contrast highlights regional differences in how Trump’s trade agenda is perceived, with some areas potentially seeing opportunities rather than obstacles.
Climate Policy
The global agreement is similarly large when it comes to the impact of Trump’s presidency on climate policies, 78% of experts expect a negative effect. Across nearly all regions, experts anticipate significant challenges, expecting climate policies to become less ambitious and less prioritized.
This pessimistic outlook is particularly prevalent in Northern America, Europe, Central and Eastern Asia. However, there are exceptions. Experts across Africa are less pessimistic, with experts particularly in Southern and Middle Africa less likely to foresee substantial setbacks in climate policy under Trump’s leadership.